What is the Steelers ceiling now Aaron Rodgers is back?
Aaron Rodgers is officially back with the Pittsburgh Steelers. After months of consternation about his future, in the end, all it took was a report that the Steelers were growing weary of Rodgers “will he, won’t he” routine for him to come to the party, sign his one-year deal, and cement that he’s playing in 2026. Funny how that works. This puts the whole Rodgers mess to bed, at least for another season. Now the Steelers can move ahead with some sort of certainty at the quarterback position after staring down the gun of potentially needing to start Mason Rudolph , Will Howard , or rookie Drew Allar — functionally ending the team’s season before it begins. The question now pivots to what is the ceiling of this team with Rodgers at the helm, and could this end up being a massive mistake? The question of whether or not this is the correct move is couched wholly in one incontrovertible fact: Every NFL team needs to rebuild eventually. It’s a reality the Steelers have been staving off since Ben Roethlisberger ’s retirement following the 2021 season, and to their credit, the organization has been competitive — but there’s also been a ceiling when it comes to quarterback. Whether it was Kenny Pickett , Russell Wilson , Justin Fields , or Aaron Rodgers, the team has been a consistent playoff team, but that’s where the success ends. The Steelers have been bounced in the Wild Card round during their last five playoff appearances, and you need to go back to 2017 to find the last time Pittsburgh made it out of the opening round. With the addition of Michael Pittman Jr. there’s no question this is the best receiving corps the team has had in years, and with Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle the team has a fascinating one-two punch at running back for this upcoming season. Now it’s time to talk brass tacks: Is this new-look Steelers team demonstrably better for bringing back Aaron Rodgers, and what is their ceiling? By Mark Schofield After months of speculation, the Pittsburgh Steelers have their quarterback for the 2026 season. Aaron Rodgers ended that speculation, agreeing to terms on a one-year deal with the Steelers over this past weekend. Rodgers is already back at work, having been spotted inside the facility as the team opens OTAs this Monday morning. But how much does Rodgers move the needle for the Steelers at this point in his career? Based on last season, probably not much. While Rodgers represented arguably the best option for the Steelers at the most important position in the game, that is also a relative concept. After all, beyond Rodgers the Steelers were looking at second-year quarterback Will Howard, rookie Drew Allar, or longtime backup Mason Rudolph. Given that, Rodgers is the best option. But this is still a quarterback that posted an Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 6.3 last year – ranking him 18th among qualified quarterbacks in the NFL – with a QBR of 44.4, which ranked him 27th in the league. When you look at Quarterback Efficiency , a metric that compares both Expected Points Added per Pass and Completion Percentage over Expectation, you see the rest of the picture. Here is that chart, courtesy of RBSDM.com : Last year Rodgers was, at best, a league-average quarterback. How much does a league-average quarterback, one year older, move the needle for the Steelers? Probably not much, in a crowded AFC field and in particular a difficult AFC North, with the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals expected to be tough opponents this year, and the Cleveland Browns coming off a very impressive offseason. What could be a saving grace for the Steelers is that the AFC North is paired with the NFC South this year for non-conference games, which could help their record a bit. But one particular stretch of their schedule stands out: A run following their bye week, which sees Pittsburgh play at Cincinnati, at Philadelphia , against Denver on a short week, against Houston, at Jacksonville , and against Baltimore. Those six [... truncated ...]
