Have Giants, Saints finally found franchise QBs? History points to Year 2 leaps for Jaxson Dart, Tyler Shough
The Giants have spent the better part of a decade looking for Eli Manning's replacement. The Saints have taken nearly as long trying to find life after Hall of Famer Drew Brees . Different cities, different organizations, same question: did they finally get their guy? New York cycled through names like Daniel Jones , Tommy DeVito and Russell Wilson before handing the offense to Jaxson Dart . In New Orleans, the list included Teddy Bridgewater , Jameis Winston , Derek Carr and Spencer Rattler before turning to Tyler Shough . Every move started with guarded optimism and ended with the search continuing. This time feels different. Not because Dart and Shough are guaranteed to become franchise quarterbacks, but because their rookie seasons in 2025 resembled those of quarterbacks who historically took major steps forward in their sophomore campaigns. Giants and Saints fans have heard such promises before. This time, there are reasons to believe. Quarterbacks don't usually break out because they throw for 4,000 yards as rookies. They break out because they already show the traits that consistently translate -- efficiency comes before production and limiting mistakes comes before stardom. The breakout usually arrives later, a function of everything else coming together. To see how Year 2 often unfolds, I looked at every quarterback since 2010 who started at least eight games as a rookie and tracked what happened in his second season. The quarterbacks who break out in Year 2 don't all get there the same way. But history shows a few recurring paths. The Launch Justin Herbert +0.13 +0.17 Elite rookie became an even better Year 2 quarterback. The Rescue Trevor Lawrence -0.09 +0.12 Coaching change unlocked his talent. The Plateau Mac Jones +0.04 -0.09 Offensive coaching change disrupted his development. The Regression Dak Prescott +0.23 -0.04 Supporting cast and offensive environment deteriorated. The Injury Robert Griffin III +0.22 +0.02 Knee injury fundamentally altered his trajectory. The lesson isn't that every quarterback falls into one of these distinct categories. It's that context matters as much as talent. Herbert built on an outstanding rookie season. Lawrence took off once Jacksonville got the coach right. Prescott regressed when the offense around him regressed ( Ezekiel Elliott was suspended, the offensive line was banged up). Mac Jones lost momentum after an offensive overhaul that included losing coordinator Josh McDaniels. And Griffin's trajectory changed because of injury late in his rookie season. Development is rarely linear, and it's almost never isolated from what's happening around the quarterback. So where does that leave this year's class? If there's one quarterback I'd bet on to make a Year 2 leap, it's Dart. What surprised me most was how consistent the results were. Whether I looked at historical comparisons or projections, they kept pointing back to the Giants quarterback. The Giants didn't spend Dart's rookie season trying to hide him. Once he became the starter, Brian Daboll asked him to run the offense, push the ball downfield and consistently make big-boy NFL throws. As the season progressed, Dart looked increasingly comfortable doing exactly that. And while it didn't always work, the results were encouraging. Dart's rookie numbers were modest: 2,272 passing yards, 15 touchdowns and a 91.7 passer rating across 12 starts. The more encouraging story lived beneath those numbers. Dart consistently challenged defenses downfield while protecting the football -- just five interceptions on 339 attempts -- even after Malik Nabers was lost for the season in Dart's first NFL start. By November, Daboll wasn't calling games like he was trying to protect a rookie. He was calling them like he expected Dart to make NFL throws. (And, yes, also like he was trying to save his job. Both things can be true.) Dart rewarded that trust. The game never felt too big, and that's a common thread fo [... truncated ...]
