Ranking all 191 first-round NFL Draft picks since 2020: Best, worst selections of the decade
Deep in the heart of the offseason, I was inspired by an exercise I saw on the NFL Stock Exchange podcast with Trevor Sikkema and Connor Rogers to take a look back at draft history, specifically evaluating and ranking the first-round picks this decade. With a list this large, being clear about the methodology is important. I decided to evaluate each decision from the team's point of view , given the draft capital and options available on the board, rather than evaluating talent alone. This is an important distinction because I'm not simply ranking players. For example, Kyle Pitts is a good player, but the decision to draft him No. 4 overall in 2021 was objectively not a good one considering the next six players off the board were Ja'Marr Chase , Jaylen Waddle , Penei Sewell , Jaycee Horn , Patrick Surtain II and DeVonta Smith . Obviously, with the 2026 draft class yet to play a snap in the NFL, it was not included. Even the 2025 class is difficult to rank this early in their careers, with very few players appearing at either edge of the spectrum. Let's get to the rankings first and then break them down team by team to evaluate how each franchise did over that span. This is unfortunately how a franchise becomes a perennial bottom-feeder. The Cardinals have drafted one Pro Bowl player this decade in second-round tight end Trey McBride , and half of their first-rounders aren't even starters anymore. That's a difficult mess to overcome in one of the best divisions in the NFL. Big hits with glaring holes is very much the story of the Falcons this decade. No hole has proven more difficult to overcome than the one Matt Ryan left at quarterback after the 2021 season. They tried to solve it in the loaded 2024 draft by taking Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall, but his checking in at No. 154 in these rankings tells you how that's gone. They've had a different leading passer every year since and look poised to do it for a fifth straight season with Tua Tagovailoa coming over from Miami this offseason. The Ravens have been one of the NFL's best-run franchises since their inception, and that hasn't changed even after Ozzie Newsome retired in 2018. Eric DeCosta has been solid, albeit unspectacular, in his role as GM ever since. His eight first-round selections without a single one in the bottom third of this list are the most of any team. The Bills may have the most wins of any team this decade, but their recent first-rounders haven't gotten them there. That said, the jury is still very much out on Maxwell Hairston and, to a degree, Dalton Kincaid. Maybe that's why Brandon Beane survived what many thought would be a complete front-office overhaul after another divisional-round exit. A sad fact of the Panthers' draft track record this decade is that they've made an NFL-leading five top-eight picks over that span. Their only non-premium pick was also one of the worst first-rounders in terms of true impact, as Xavier Legette has already been relegated to backup status. Caleb Williams' inclusion in the bottom third of this list may be controversial, but through two seasons, he's been outplayed by both quarterbacks selected immediately after him despite having arguably the best supporting cast. I would be more receptive to arguments that Colston Loveland and Rome Odunze are too low. I'd even agree that they're both likely to end up higher if we redo this exercise in a couple of years. Because both were premium picks with relatively modest production, though, I couldn't justify ranking them higher at this point. While the Bengals' draft track record has rightfully drawn criticism of late, they started the decade with two franchise-changing picks in back-to-back drafts. The duo of Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase has dragged one of the most underachieving franchises in sports to the forefront of the national conversation more often than not over the past half-decade. The Achilles' heel for Duke Tobin in the draft this decade has been the defens [... truncated ...]
